As of now I still have nine films left to see amongst the nominees (not including shorts and obscurities still unavailable in the US). But the list is out. And most members of the Academy still miss at least a few of the short-listers. So what do I think about the final ballot?
WRITING (Original Screenplay)
This is a tough category, and while I have missed two of the films I still feel the three I have seen all have a decent chance of winning.
Who I'd like to see win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Something about this film works so much better than I could have anticipated. Woody took a very simple idea worthy of a creative writing course in high school and made a highly memorable film out of it. I think he deserves to win just for showing us his mastery.
Who I think will win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
And I can't argue with this. He made something no one's even attempted in decades. He found someone willing to produce it and now there's this charming little film just resting in the memories of people all over the world.
WRITING (Adapted Screenplay)
Who I'd like to see win: Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Solder Spy
They took an interesting story and ingratiated themselves into an understated, breathing film. I commend bravery and I think this film stinks of it. Just wish it was up for Best Picture.
Who I think will win: Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball
I like this film a lot... and I love Sorkin. But the vast majority of baseball fans were decidedly unimpressed by this feature. The thought being, it didn't even try to tell the true story and missed most of the key marks. Still, as an active ignorant of Baseball (it's too boring for me) I find the final film at least interesting.
Who I'd like to see win: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Nothing else this year compares. Just watching Caesar's expressions is amazing. But then consider, he was more believable than most of the human actors and you know you've got something special.
Who I think will win: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The obvious front runner takes it. And thank god, if Real Steel went away with a statue I don't think I'd believe in a benevolent universe any more.
Who I'd like to see win: Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson, War Horse
The sound had to be perfect and I think it really was. To make an audience care about a horse in the middle of, well, a war... your lead doesn't have any lines... sound has to come up big. And it does.
Who I think will win: Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin, Transformers: Dark of the Moon
I hope this doesn't happen. Once again Michael Bay has made a piece of shit and called it art. The movie is too convoluted and as with the others that came before it, I have trouble understanding which robot is even doing what at what time and for what reason. But then, almost like clockwork, a bad movie always walks away with something.
Who I'd like to see win: Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis, Drive
This film breathes so well. And the sound is pitch perfect.
Who I think will win: Ren Klyce, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
I'd be okay with this, though I feel the sound did more for Drive. They honestly are very close in quality, so I just assume the more popular film will win.
MUSIC (Original Song)
Who I'd like to see win: Bret McKenzie, Man or Muppet from The Muppets
This song was so very fun. I personally can't wait to see it performed at the ceremony.
Who I think will win: Bret McKenzie, Man or Muppet from The Muppets
Like Real Steel, if I see Rio walk away with a statue, my brain may implode. And this Muppets song is just so much more interesting.
MUSIC (Original Score)
Who I'd like to see win: Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Tinker Tailor just did everything right for me, so I'm gunning for it in every category. Score is a big one as that specifically helped make the movie for me.
Who I think will win: John Williams, War Horse (or The Adventures of Tintin)
I just find it hard to believe that John gets nominated twice in one year and doesn't take the prize... but then there's always the possibility that he splits his votes.
Who I'd like to see win: Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
With the exception of the aging makeup at the end, I've liked what they've done with this whole franchise in the looks department.
Who I think will win: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs
This is one of the films I missed, but based on what I've seen in promos, and assuming the aging makeup does effect the voters opinions, the door is open for something odd like making a woman a man to take the cake.
Who I'd like to see win: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
This may be biased, but I just don't like the editing in the original film. So to see this version succeed so completely where the other one fell short... well tat gets me giddy. I like both films, but that one quality of the original takes away so much from my experience.
Who I think will win: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
I just think there's nothing else to compare this to in the last fifty years. And I feel the voters will jump on the bandwagon. After all, I can't believe that one of the others like Hugo would even stand a chance. Man did I dislike the editing in Hugo.
I'll be back to talk about the rest of the awards in Part 2.